DECEIVED BY EXPERIENCE

Yes, at this moment you are creating your reality based on information that is part of other past experiences of yours that, together with this unprecedented moment, give you this sensation of continuity of life. Yes, the weight of experience is decisive for us to make judgments and decisions at this exact moment. In reality, at every moment of life we are interpreting the past in the present state — what we saw, experienced, and what we were told — and based on these unique and singular references, it helps us to build this moment and to chart a course for the future.

We are fundamentally beliefs, that is, we consciously and unconsciously trust the wisdom we carry, which in turn is responsible for our choice criteria. In any case, almost always, it is from the result of past experience that we live the present and aim for the future. After all, wasn’t it our ability to understand the things we have been through that brought us to where we are now? It is reasonable for us to resort to the same source to make new decisions.

But who said that our unique history represents the best source of information to lead us towards a better life?

It is true that experience seems like a reliable guide, but sometimes it deceives us, instead of helping us to build a more lucid present and open to experiencing new knowledge, for what in common we call systemic thinking, it can blind us at the same time as it holds us back in the same place. This is because we see the past through various filters that distort our perceptions and this anthropologically has its purpose. If we consider that we are a species, H. sapiens, that emerged about 300 thousand years ago, we can understand that cognitive reality was completely different. To survive, for these thousands of years, we needed to base our decisions on the history of experiences, mainly those that brought some security for us to stay alive and reproduce. Differentiating what was working and what was not from the survival of the species itself.

Notice, therefore, as we experience life, we also automate a large part of the activities in which we feel safe, which leads us to repeat these actions with similar results. Thus, we give cognitive space to automate the largest number of mental activities and pay attention to learning new things, beyond what we already know. As a result and not by chance, our interpretations of experience are biased, and the judgments and decisions on which we base our interpretations can often be mistaken.

Even so, we insist on believing that we extract the correct ideas from our own experience and from the reports of other people who in some way represent for us a certain level of admiration or security.

“In that sense, for example, in 1999, David Dunning and Justin Kruger, psychologists from the Department of Psychology at Cornell University, conducted a study that became known by observing a curious phenomenon, the so-called “Dunning-Kruger effect.” In the article published by them entitled “Unskilled and unaware of it: how difficulties in recognizing one’s own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments,” sought to understand the relationship between behavior and confidence. With a series of 4 studies, which contemplated the analysis from humor to cognitive skills, the volunteers were students from the university itself from various Psychology courses. The experiment showed that they were unable to accurately evaluate their tests, that is, they tended to see themselves getting better results than what was actually proven. What directly impacted the view of their inadequacies was the excess of confidence, which prevented them from identifying low performance.

In the humor test, for example, the level of humor of different jokes was evaluated on a scale previously established by the researchers, and the discovery was that some, when determining what other people might find funny, were not as successful, but still described their choices as great. This perception continued to be validated throughout the other tests. One of the studies relied on the argumentative proposition that participants who did not master the subject had a lack of metacognitive skills that inhibited them from perceiving how bad their performance was. That is, the sample showed that we have a more inflated view of our own capabilities. Throughout all the studies, some of the participants not only overestimated themselves, but thought they were above average. The conclusion of the study was that those with limited knowledge in a particular subject suffer what the researchers called a “double burden”: not only do they draw wrong conclusions and make mistakes, but their incompetence prevents them from having the ability to perceive such behavior. On the other hand, it seems that very competent individuals also suffer a burden. Although they have good performance, they do not realize that their capacity is not necessarily shared by others.

“It is one of the essential characteristics of such incompetence that the person so afflicted is incapable of knowing that he is incompetent. Having such knowledge would already remedy much of the offense”. (William Ian Miller)

DECEIVED BY EXPERIENCE

There are numerous behavioral studies that demonstrate the difficulty we have in assessing our own reality about our cognitive abilities, such as the knowledge we develop throughout life. We tend to always overestimate them. However, this does not mean that we need to be victims of ourselves. This is because humans have consciousness. Therefore, when we bring this condition into the work environment, we can make a much more accurate analysis if our goal is to improve decision-making. Yes, we can use our knowledge about conscious filters to understand exactly what our experience has to teach us. Based on a broad set of research on the subject, I will focus in this article on the biases resulting from three types of filter:

• The business environment, which favors the observation of results (mainly successes), rather than the processes that lead to them;
• Our circle of colleagues, who may be censoring information they share with us;
• Our own limited reasoning ability.

In the end, I also intend to present some cognitive resources to overcome these biases that I am sure will help improve self-awareness of our actions not only at work, but I am sure that in life as a whole.

THE OBVIOUS DIRECTS ATTENTION

We always tend to pay attention to what most stimulates our senses, not least because we focus on what we can see, not in the sense that necessarily has to do with sight but with what is most obvious. If you think about your last business decisions, the results of these decisions were highly visible — in a way that analysis resources were easily available enough to be simpler to observe and judge. The details of the decision-making process, which are fundamental to have conscious control much more than the result, usually do not attract our attention.

Naturally, we are in a continuous process of facilitation, simplifying our choices, and if the goal is to learn from experience — both from mistakes and successes — recognizing them becomes essential to understand the importance of this cognitive process. Imagine that two employees are involved in different projects, however, both are in a situation where they must make a risky strategic decision, but, coincidentally, both make the same decision, but one was lucky and it worked out, unlike the other, which by chance it went wrong. This example is very important to understand how our minds tend to act and create an experiential history, this is because instinctively we tend to celebrate and value what worked and to judge and condemn what went wrong, finding justifications (alienations) to strengthen our criticisms and judgments. This means that there is a natural tendency to excessively reward the results of a decision and disregard the means, and this is known as outcome bias.

In practice, this cognitive resource directly and indirectly influences our actions in subtle ways. Understand that a positive result tends to lead us to maintain a questionable strategy, while a bad result can make us change or abandon a strategy that could still be worthwhile. This is because what works and what doesn’t impact the formation of our beliefs. Just as focusing on results can also influence our sense of ethics. In social psychology, there are numerous studies that show that the same results of behaviors provoke more ethical condemnations when they happen to produce bad results instead of good ones, even if the results are determined by chance. In other words, if everything turns out well, we tend to think that the decision was not only effective but also morally correct. Our focus on results, and the disregard for the processes that create them, make solutions seem more valuable than preventive actions.

A leader who can solve a persistent problem can be identified and rewarded, while another who acts to avoid the same problem is much harder to recognize. Among the results, successes are more visible than failures. This blindness tends to be part of our daily lives. If we go to “amazon.com” and search for success stories, there will be hundreds and thousands of stories of people who have succeeded. The business world is full of stories with successes — the latest best-sellers, the largest startup as well as winning business strategies are widely publicized, while failures are forgotten. This is a big mistake that we are continuously trained to think. An excess of illusory positivity that is turned into a collective belief of actions and attitudes that can lead a person to delude themselves to their professional peak. Raw material for any self-help manual that has depressed people so much.

However, basing ourselves on success stories is only a belief. This type of analysis about what these successes have in common is a practice as unreliable as it is popular, as limiting and biased. Looking at what works not only limits our condition for improvement and learning but also prevents us from seeing another negative side that may be embedded in success. Thus, failures may have some characteristics in common with successes. As well as if there are certain factors that always lead to failure, we are not able to discover them by studying only success cases. In the book “Fooled by Randomness,” Nassim Nicholas Taleb succinctly states that doing this masks the failure rate. Moreover, it hides an unedited dark side of means and ends. In fact, it is the best way to flourish misleading results. This type of literature that this book “Fooled by Randomness” addresses is very revealing if we really want to break our paradigms to become better professionals.

On the other hand, as mentioned earlier, we always seek the simplest path to construct a logic, and if there is an exaggerated amount of success publications, and the rate is high, it is likely that in the end, after reading them all, you will understand that there is no magic formula for success, until then you have a great chance of becoming frustrated, suffering, feeling anguish, disappointed, and why not sending out resumes in search of a new job. If there is no magic formula, a manager cannot be criticized for not having one. By hiding the predominance of failures, the environment makes it more difficult for us to learn from them. Instead, we are led to mistakenly believe that we have greater control over successes than we actually possess. View with caution any list that promises to reveal, for example, “ten common characteristics of successful companies” — whether it is presented with an exclamation point or comes with the seriousness of a legitimate study. Ignoring failures has another effect, which is blindness in management.

WE TEND TO RELY ON GROUPS THAT THINK ALIKE

One of the greatest opportunities for a manager to develop their behavioral skills is when receiving honest feedback — an impartial evaluation, without distortions, of an experience — although it is not always something pleasing, it is the opportunity to improve decisions. However, there is another human characteristic, which is precisely to be surrounded by people who have some bond with whom they identify themselves, moreover, when the work environment is not appropriate, where the first goal is to make people understand the importance of feedback, people will have little incentive to provide censored information, and out of self-interest, they will not do it — and these people are not necessarily sycophants. Censorship is a powerful tool to influence opinion. Restricting the information that reaches leaders, managers, and employees, causes a strong bias in their perceptions. Even if we are aware of the existence of trends, it is difficult to think beyond the immediately available information, because we have strong difficulties in self-criticism and always tend to go for the most colorful path. Our intuitions are generally shaped by the evidence we remember, regardless of its relevance — a tendency that in behavioral psychology is called the availability bias. People who are expecting a raise, a promotion, or some other benefit may well choose to provide partial and hypocritical feedback, omitting anything negative about a decision maker’s performance.

In addition, we carry the need to be recognized and feel belonging, and even the most experienced and trustworthy people are not necessarily capable of making sincere feedback assessments with the conscious interest of “pleasing”, they may just be unconsciously trying to adapt to the group. A good way to do this is to agree with the majority, and if you are the manager, of course, there may be a greater appeal. Naturally for humans, it is much easier to agree with others’ opinions than to express objections. If all your employees follow this approach, you will have no dissenters. This type of behavior tends to worsen things, including making the environment toxic. Similarly, forcing a different situation does not facilitate healthy communication. But rather building a healthy environment where people feel safe enough to be open to criticism — this is very difficult especially for people at the top or from culturally biased environments.

The problem is that the environment itself can lead to this censorship and the desire for conformity gives leaders and managers a distorted view of their strategic competence, a bias that can cause their downfall or seriously harm the company. In such environments, more severe decisions tend to occur as the likelihood that CEOs will initiate necessary strategic changes in response to poor company performance, which, of course, may lead to their dismissal. Furthermore, it is worth reflecting that managers who have people by their side who agree with them may also suffer a decrease in their creativity and problem-solving ability. A work environment is always something alive, organic, mutable. It is a system formed by people. Therefore, it must be clear that the conception of an idea, strategy, or processes is rarely an individual act, although it is identity. This means that the effort of innovation, critical thinking, creative thinking should always involve contributions from a diverse set of people. Great ideas arise precisely from different ways of thinking. If everyone is just trying to act in accordance with the group, that group cannot benefit from the perspectives and experiences of each person.

THE EVIL OF SELF-VALORIZATION OF OUR EXPERIENCES

In any case, we do not only summarize our choices with the distorted view of the world and the environment we are in but also in our closest circle of collaborators. There is something much more important to reflect on, and that is about ourselves. The way we build our life reality falls on us. Our own ability to think helps us deal with life while it can sabotage how we perceive the world and evaluate the mundane issues of everyday life. We are relational beings, relating to the world every moment of our lives. The result of these relationships will create the criteria for how we build our reality in the next moment; these are the lessons that will be used as a foundation for our choices. The problem with this set of information is that it includes experiences of those that are mistaken reinforcements formed by experience—even when it is possible to learn the right ones.

One problem is that we tend to seek and use evidence that confirms our beliefs and hypotheses, and we ignore or overlook information that contradicts them—a practice of selective construction and interpretation of experience known as confirmation bias. We can easily support our beloved superstitions, spurious correlations, and false connections. This natural tendency of the human mind makes competent decision-making difficult. This is so present in humans that they are capable of forming a set of false memories to justify these beliefs. Philosopher John Stuart Mill wrote in his “Essay on Liberty”: “There are many truths whose full meaning cannot be perceived until personal experience makes it clear.” Mill’s view assumes that we record and remember events accurately. But we do not.

In addition to the poor quality and unreliability of our memory of experience, there is the crucial problem of quantity. It is the variability of the sample that brings to the present state a set of memories that interrelate and not all of them actually have to do with the problem at hand. Also, there is the factor of sentiment and emotion. For example, if a leader’s personal experience comes from other projects or companies, when faced with a situation that requires experience, he will inevitably rely on small samples of incidents that most likely do not represent the entire context of that condition at that moment. It is impossible for any manager to experience the full range of possibilities. Differences between incidents may be due to unknown factors or randomness or even because it is a different environment, with different people involved and different criteria. If managers attribute too much meaning to these differences, even if there are certain similarities, they may be led to see, mistakenly, patterns that do not actually exist, as well as alienated relationships between disconnected variables.

Our belief in the relationship between past and future can also interfere with our view of the world. Predictions based on experience assume the crucial assumption that the future will be similar to the past. This is so present in our daily lives as human intuition as a basis for us to use as a prediction. The fact is that not even the most prepared and experienced people in certain subjects are efficient in predicting economic, social, and technological events, and this was the result of over ten years of study on intuition. Therefore, it is worth noting that managers should be aware that just because something seems obvious after the fact, it does not mean that it could have been predicted. Decision-makers often fall into this hindsight bias, which can lead to overconfidence and illusions of control. One of the most common mistakes we make in our daily lives—when making a decision—is not to realize that you cannot predict—a much greater mistake than not being able to predict.

HOW NOT TO BE DECEIVED BY OURSELVES

If you do not want to be a victim of yourself, then here are some fundamental points to consider and reflect on in your daily life, helping you make decisions based on a clearer and more objective view.

1º. Start by analyzing what went wrong: As explained, we have a strong tendency to hide what went wrong. But know that the greatest learnings lie in mistakes. For managers, it is not easy to share their worst experiences, those that went wrong, but this should be a rule and not an exception. Know that to give more people the opportunity to share their failure cases, a group of entrepreneurs organizes FailCon, a conference dedicated to giving visibility to experiences that would otherwise remain hidden. With the aim of identifying what can be done better in the future, companies also conduct analyses on decisions, examining the underlying processes. Naturally, the intention to learn should be the dominant proposal and not wanting to judge, criticize, or blame people.

2º. Do not ignore “chance”: Epictetus said nearly two thousand years ago that life is partly the result of our choices and partly governed by chance. Do not ignore them, even if the action did not turn into tragedies. Chance can represent a great lesson for success, even when it brings serious consequences. Because of chance, many events that could cause tragic accidents in aviation, chemical industry, engineering, etc., do not happen. What seems impossible, unpredictable, unexpected, can be the answer to failure and success in the future. Ironically, ignoring this almost disaster—as often happens—can lead workers to consider it irrelevant, which would help perpetuate the same dangerous behavior. There are plenty of examples in modern history that demonstrate how we fail to pay attention to what did not end in tragedy, giving the real chance now, ignoring this information, for the tragedy to actually happen.

3º. Prevention is better than cure: There is no serious manager who does not know this phrase. To open up the possibility of a more systemic view and from it recognize a potential problem, it is necessary to act differently from an approach used to solve a known or concrete issue. The best strategy of a good manager is to listen to people, make the most of employees collectively, allowing them to be critical and clearly express their main concerns about the company’s operations. The problem is that many companies discourage employee participation, silencing them, for fear of reprisals or being labeled. But signs of a serious mistake can be more easily picked up by lower-level managers and employees who deal with daily operations than by their senior colleagues. Employees should feel comfortable—or even obligated—to report problems to their direct supervisors.

4º. Disagree: This reminds me of the famous quote by guru Peter Drucker, which says, “The first rule of decision making is that one does not make a decision unless there is disagreement.” Strategies are made from conflicting points of view. The more diversified the viewpoints, the better the construction of the ideal, including critical opinions about your own actions. High-level managers are always surrounded by people with diverse experiences and foster lateral thinking in their team. Do not be intimidated, make use of charging certain colleagues, friends, or even family members to speak frankly about important issues. “It is much better to hear from colleagues that there is a problem—when there is still time to fix it—than from the public, when it is too late.”

5º. Always seek evidence to contradict your own beliefs: If you truly want to achieve professional success, start practicing the habit of always seeking evidence that challenges your beliefs. Instead of finding evidence that corroborates your intuition—something very valuable in a world full of information—it will make you increasingly a great professional. What evidence would contradict your belief and what is the likelihood that you will find it? One technique is to use this mental experiment: imagine that you are already in the future and things did not go as you expected. Now use your new retrospective vision to ask how this could have happened. Additionally, conduct research, seek information, listen to those who disagree, always be open to hearing what others have to teach us, especially when things are conflicting. Ask questions in a way that leads them to look for signs of mistakes or issues that need to be better addressed, which may jeopardize your mission but do not reveal what you really expect as an answer. And a “field” process to reflect and broaden your critical thinking.

6º. Practice systemic thinking: It may seem that to extract valuable lessons from our experience, we should focus on experiences that we find to be truly important. In fact, a narrow perspective can be a serious obstacle. A company that directs its research and development efforts into a single field, a startup that uses few communication channels, or a manager who only employs people with a certain background will not be able to deal well with the complexity of today’s business environment, let alone with what comes tomorrow. Being open to the unexpected is also crucial for employees. A broad perspective can help, giving new meaning to our varied experiences and allowing us to learn from them and use them in surprising ways. The result is often a surprising discovery and innovation. Curiosity, cleverness, imagination, permission, are so present in great discoveries throughout human history, from X-rays, penicillin, microwave ovens, pacemakers, Teflon, Viagra, vulcanized rubber, insulin, super glue, popsicles, and so many other ideas that demonstrate that there are no limits to human creativity.

Managers who recognize the role of chance have an advantage over those with illusions of control and overconfidence about the accuracy of their judgments. Change is both inevitable and unpredictable. In the book “Dance with Chance,” its authors draw attention to the fact that it is possible to calibrate our intuitions as needed and learn to see change as an opportunity, not a shock. For this, we need to consciously deal with our beliefs, understanding that they symbolize one way of seeing things among many other possibilities. Being open to different experiences will greatly help decision-makers increase their chances of being in the right place at the right time. The fact is that the more we experience life, the more cognitive resources we have to deal with it, and this should be the great teaching. Allowing experimentation will teach us to accept criticism in a lucid and coherent way, which should also be a guide but almost never part of our actions. What we learn from experience is usually filtered: by the business environment, by the people around us, and by ourselves. Perhaps we should then end this article with a quote from Hillel Einhorn: “If we believe we can learn from experience, can we also learn that we cannot?”

The journey of self-discovery and personal growth is a long and winding road, paved with our experiences, both glorious and challenging. As we reflect on our successes and failures, we discover not only who we are but also who we can become. It is in the humility of acknowledging that we do not hold all the answers that we find the key to true growth. Thus, we embrace every mistake as an opportunity for learning, every challenge as an invitation to surpass ourselves. In the end, it is the journey of self-discovery that makes us not only better professionals but also more complete, compassionate, and aware human beings. May we continue to walk this path together with courage, humility, and gratitude, knowing that each step brings us closer to our best selves.

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Hello, I’m Marcello de Souza! I started my career in 1997 as a leader and manager in a large company in the IT and Telecommunications market. Since then, I have participated in important projects of structuring, implementation, and optimization of telecommunications networks in Brazil. Restless and passionate about behavioral and social psychology. In 2008, I decided to delve into the universe of the human mind.

Since then, I have become a professional passionate about deciphering the secrets of human behavior and catalyzing positive changes in individuals and organizations. Doctor in Social Psychology, with over 25 years of experience in Cognitive Behavioral and Human Organizational Development. With a wide-ranging career, I highlight my role as:

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