LEADERSHIP IN THE AGE OF PERMAVUCALUTION: TURNING CHAOS INTO CREATIVITY

Imagine you are in command of a ship, and the navigation chart has been lost. There are no more visible landmarks, and suddenly, it seems that the stars in the sky begin to move in unpredictable ways. Every decision you make needs to be reassessed, as external conditions are constantly changing. Where once there were well-defined trajectories, now what matters is the ability to navigate through chaos. Such is leadership in today’s times: in a world where predictability has become a luxury and adaptation, a necessity.

If we look back at the recent past, we can see that the concept of VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity) was an attempt to describe the post-Cold War world when organizations began to face an increasingly unpredictable and unstable global environment. Introduced by the U.S. military in the 1990s, the term aimed to capture the turbulent and uncertain nature of the geopolitical landscape at the time. However, over the past few decades, the concept of VUCA has expanded and applied to all aspects of society and the corporate world.

However, over time, and today more than ever, it is clear that crises have become more frequent and overlapping, no longer episodic, but continuous, creating a new context: Permavucalution. Created by Bob Johansen, futurist and author of “Leaders Make the Future,” the term “Permavucalution” reflects a deeper and more transformative reality that permeates the 21st century, where crisis has become a permanent condition and, therefore, a new way of living and leading. Permavucalution combines the idea of “permacrisis” (ongoing crises) with the concept of VUCA, to describe a scenario in which changes are fast, unpredictable, and often chaotic.

Thus, we live in an era where chaos has ceased to be an exception and has become the norm. Crises are no longer isolated events, but rather interconnected and persistent phenomena. In this scenario, traditional leadership, based on control and predictability, is no longer sufficient. Thus, a new approach arises: leadership in the era of Permavucalution.

In this article, we will explore the concept and how leaders can not only survive but thrive in this turbulent scenario. We will analyze the new competencies required in times of uncertainty and how the key to effective leadership lies in embracing both internal and external revolutions. We will discuss how to turn chaos into opportunity by adopting an innovative, systemic, and resilient approach, capable of thriving in times of permanent revolution.

The VUCA World and the Rise of Permavucalution

Leading in the era of Permavucalution is like navigating without a fixed direction, in a terrain that changes constantly. In this new paradigm, the most effective leaders are not those who seek to eradicate uncertainty, but those who become masters in living with it, transforming it into a powerful lever for innovation and growth.

As we saw in the introduction, it was at the end of the 20th century that the term VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity) was coined to describe a world in accelerated transformation. Originally used in a military context to characterize the unpredictable changes of the post-Cold War era, this concept soon expanded to the business world, serving as a lens to analyze economic, geopolitical, and social dynamics. As the 21st century progresses, the assumptions underlying the VUCA concept have intensified, creating an increasingly volatile and uncertain reality.

Globalization, the digital revolution, and the growing interdependence between economies have made the corporate environment even more unpredictable. Volatility has ceased to be a sporadic occurrence and has become a permanent characteristic. Uncertainty, which once manifested itself during moments of crisis, has now consolidated itself as a constant condition, and predicting the future has become almost impossible.

The growing level of complexity and ambiguity in the global landscape has also expanded. The interconnectedness of economies and the acceleration of information exchange have created a scenario where decisions must be made based on multiple interdependent and often unpredictable factors. This complexity, coupled with ambiguity, has made even the most obvious solutions more difficult to identify.

However, the financial crisis of 2008 and, more recently, the COVID-19 pandemic were decisive events that exposed the fragilities of global systems and solidified the notion that we are no longer dealing with episodic crises. Instead, we live in a continuous cycle of overlapping uncertainties, creating an environment of Permavucalution — a state of constant, interconnected, and persistent crises. The pandemic, in particular, was a watershed moment, crystallizing the need for continuous adaptation.

Organizations that survived and even thrived during this period were those that did not cling to old models but knew how to reinvent themselves. Instead of trying to preserve what already existed, they unlearned outdated practices and learned new ways to operate. For many companies, remote work was a temporary solution; for others, it became a new cultural and structural model.

As already discussed, the concept of Permavucalution, introduced by futurist Bob Johansen in 2017, aims to describe a world where crises are no longer isolated events but a continuous and interdependent condition. By coining this concept, Johansen seeks to name an era where rapid changes, shocks, and crises no longer emerge in isolation but intertwine and amplify each other, creating a scenario of permanent volatility and uncertainty. In his view, the traditional model of crises followed by stabilization periods no longer applied to the emerging reality of the 21st century. He wanted to alert to the need for a new approach to leadership and management: one that not only manages crises but sees them as driving forces of change and innovation.

When speaking of Permavucalution, Johansen was not just offering a new terminology but a framework for leaders to understand the fast pace of transformations and how they could not only survive in this scenario but thrive within it. Rather than passively reacting to crises, he proposed an active and adaptive mindset, where organizations and individuals are able to integrate chaos into their routine and use it as a catalyst for growth and continuous reinvention.

With this, the need for a new approach to leadership arises. Traditional leadership, which seeks predictability and control, is no longer sufficient. In a world of constant uncertainty, the leader of the future must be an agent of adaptation, capable of turning chaos into a catalyst for innovation.

In this new scenario, leadership is no longer about controlling what can be predicted but about embracing unpredictability and using transformation as a competitive advantage. The companies that stand out are those that see crises as opportunities for reinvention, leveraging flexibility and innovation as their greatest weapons. Resilience is not just a reaction to crisis but a guiding principle that informs continuous adaptation.

A fascinating example of this concept of adaptation can be seen in a mental health tech startup I had the opportunity to closely follow. Founded in 2015, the company quickly made a name for itself by offering an innovative platform that connected employees with mental health professionals, improving productivity and well-being. Before the pandemic, their services were mostly in-person, with workshops and therapy sessions. However, when the COVID-19 crisis hit, demand for these services plummeted. The internal team also faced rising anxiety and stress, both among employees and clients.

Instead of viewing this moment as an obstacle, the leadership of the startup saw it as an opportunity to reinvent their business model. They reconfigured the platform into a 100% digital format, incorporating specialized online support features and live workshops. In just six months, the number of active users grew by 40%, while the customer satisfaction rate rose from 85% to 92%, according to an internal survey. Additionally, the integration of artificial intelligence for precise diagnostics reduced the average triage time from 48 hours to 12 hours. Strategic partnerships with health plans expanded their reach, resulting in a 25% increase in the company’s annual revenue. What was once a model centered on in-person services transformed into a robust digital platform capable of scaling globally. The company not only adapted to the crisis but also repositioned itself as a leader in a new category of technological solutions for corporate well-being.

Similarly, another agile adaptation approach can be seen in a software company that, at the start of the pandemic, faced a sharp decline in demand for its main product line. Instead of waiting for the situation to stabilize before resuming operations, the company’s leadership viewed the crisis as a strategic opportunity for transformation. Seeking solutions within its own portfolio, and with impressive agility, the company launched a new product in just 90 days. The launch was a success, with adoption in over 300 organizations in the first three months. This strategic move resulted in a 15% increase in market share in the digital collaboration segment and a 20% growth in quarterly revenue. Additionally, research showed that 87% of customers who adopted the new solution reported higher productivity in their teams. Despite initial difficulties, the company managed to quickly reposition itself, emerging as a leader in a new market niche.

These examples illustrate how situations that could have been seen as devastating blows were transformed into exemplary cases of strategic adaptation. In addition to positive financial results, these stories reflect the positive human impact, turning crises into springboards for innovation. In times of Permavucalution, true leadership is not limited to facing crises, but to using them as opportunities to create a more resilient and innovative future.

Effective leaders, therefore, are not those who desperately seek to avoid or control chaos, but rather those who develop the mindset needed to transform adversity into opportunity. They know that, in the world of Permavucalution, the only constant will be change. And the real differentiator is not in predicting or controlling the future, but in how to position oneself in relation to it. By adopting this mindset in a continuous and systematic way, these leaders not only weather the storm but emerge from it with a renewed and stronger vision, ready to face future challenges with resilience and innovation.

The Internal Revolution

Leading in the era of Permavucalution requires more than just sharp technical skills or well-designed strategies. It requires a true internal revolution. Before transforming the world around them, the leader must undergo a deep process of personal transformation. This means reviewing, questioning, and often abandoning old assumptions, breaking away from outdated paradigms to make room for new ways of thinking and acting. This mentality of continuous evolution becomes the foundation for any effective external action.

Neuroscience confirms that the human brain is, by nature, a forecasting machine. It seeks patterns, attempts to create order within chaos, and looks for security in the predictable. In a world, however, where uncertainty has become the only constant, insisting on controlling or resisting the unpredictable flow can be counterproductive. The leader of the future must develop the ability to see uncertainty not as something to fight against but as a natural and intrinsic part of the evolution process.

This kind of adaptation requires courage, humility, and a deep commitment to constant learning. It requires being willing to question one’s own assumptions, undo preconceived ideas, and adopt a more fluid and flexible posture in the face of challenges. The leaders who will stand out in times of Permavucalution will be those who are not afraid to reinvent themselves, who find in failures and crises an opportunity to learn and grow. It is in this mindset that the true internal revolution resides.

The concept of a growth mindset, advocated by Carol Dweck, makes perfect sense here. According to Dweck, the ability to see abilities as something malleable — rather than fixed — is essential for personal and professional development. Leaders with a growth mindset know that challenges are opportunities for development, and that mistakes are not permanent failures but stages toward greater effectiveness. Adopting this mindset is a prerequisite for those who wish to navigate the roller coaster of uncertainty with skill, turning adversities into stepping stones for success.

The true revolution begins inside each leader, with the willingness to adapt, unlearn, and learn again. It is not just about adjusting external behaviors or skills, but about cultivating a deep transformation that will only be reflected in the external environment when the internal transformation is truly genuine and solid.

From Fear to Creativity

Uncertainty is commonly perceived as the main trigger for fear. Behavioral psychology tells us that throughout human history, fear emerged as a survival mechanism. It activated the amygdala, the part of the brain responsible for detecting threats, triggering the “freeze, fight, or flight” responses to protect us from danger. When faced with unknown and unpredictable situations, as in times of crisis, this emotional and physiological response is intense and often paralyzing.

However, neuroscience has shown that, beyond the automatic fear response, the human brain is also capable of reorganizing itself to cope with adversity and find creative solutions. Neuroplasticity, a key concept in neuroscience, describes the brain’s incredible ability to adapt to new experiences and overcome challenges. During stressful times, the brain not only “protects” itself but also undergoes a process of structural and functional remodeling. This phenomenon is essential for survival and learning, as it allows the brain to adjust to new realities and contexts, generating new connections and strengthening existing ones.

Recent research shows that acute stress, when managed in a controlled and seasonal way, although uncomfortable, can have positive effects on the brain. It stimulates the release of neurotransmitters such as dopamine and norepinephrine, which are crucial for learning, memory, and creative problem-solving. These neurotransmitters increase the brain’s ability to deal with challenges, promoting a more focused and agile mental state, which can facilitate the development of new solutions in crisis situations.

Therefore, instead of being just a negative experience, the crisis can act as a catalyst for the brain, encouraging it to create new neural connections and adopt innovative approaches. In a world of constant uncertainties, the ability to navigate stress productively and use neuroplasticity to adapt is crucial for the development of creative and effective solutions.

Additionally, behavioral psychology studies suggest that emotions such as fear and insecurity are not necessarily obstacles to innovation, but can serve as sources of motivation when managed properly. In her study of the growth mindset, Carol Dweck revealed that people who see difficulties as challenges and opportunities for learning are more resilient and creative. This directly applies to leadership in times of Permavucalution. When a leader allows themselves to feel fear but chooses not to be dominated by it, they pave the way for a mindset shift, becoming more flexible and adaptable. This ability to learn from adversity is the key to transforming crises into opportunities.

Positive psychology, a field of psychology that studies the positive aspects of human experience, sheds more light on this process. Martin Seligman, one of the pioneers in this field, discovered that people who practice psychological resilience during difficult times are more likely to experience an increase in creativity. When leaders face challenges and manage to maintain an optimistic, albeit realistic, mindset, they activate their ability to find creative solutions. Fear can be an overwhelming emotion, but when confronted with emotional regulation strategies, it can be transformed into a force that drives the search for innovative alternatives.

This can be illustrated by historical examples. During the Great Depression, for example, one of the largest economic crises in history, many companies were forced to reinvent themselves to survive. IBM, which was initially a tabulating and typewriter company, transformed itself into one of the largest technology giants by focusing on innovations in hardware and software that would meet new market demands. The crisis was not just an obstacle, but a turning point that drove innovation and adaptation.

Research conducted by Clayton Christensen on the concept of “Disruptive Innovation” suggests that crises often create the ideal conditions for the emergence of disruptive innovations. According to Christensen, when a company faces economic or operational difficulties, it tends to rethink its operations and seek out-of-the-box solutions. This process, often uncomfortable and challenging, creates an opportunity for new business models and technologies, as we saw with many startups that emerged after the 2008 crisis.

The COVID-19 pandemic offers another recent example of how crises can foster innovation. Studies by McKinsey & Company indicate that more than 80% of companies accelerated their digital initiatives in response to the pandemic, many of them creating new products and services aimed at meeting the emerging needs of remote work and connectivity. Companies like Zoom, Google Meet, and Microsoft Teams, which already existed before the crisis, saw their solutions expand exponentially, while new remote work models and digital collaboration platforms emerged rapidly.

The Role of Emotional Regulation

The key to leveraging crises as a catalyst for innovation lies in a leader’s ability to manage their own emotions and create an environment that allows their team to do the same. The Emotional Regulation model in behavioral psychology suggests that, rather than avoiding or suppressing fear, we should learn to understand it and use it to our advantage. Research on “emotional intelligence” shows that leaders with high emotional intelligence are better able to recognize their emotions, such as fear and anxiety, and use them to stimulate creativity and learning.

In times of Permavucalution, the ability to cope with uncertainty not only enhances individual well-being but can also have a profound impact on organizational innovation. This happens because leaders who manage to stay emotionally balanced during a crisis inspire confidence in their teams, creating a safe space for team members to share creative ideas without fear of failure.

Fear as a Driver of Innovation

To deal with Permavucalution, it is essential to understand that fear, anxiety, and insecurity, far from being insurmountable obstacles, can be powerful agents of transformation. Leaders who can integrate these emotions into their leadership practice and know how to use neuroplasticity and emotional resilience to their advantage are those most likely to lead their organizations to success in times of uncertainty.

True innovation does not arise from the absence of fear, but from the ability to face it, understand it, and, with courage and curiosity, transform it into a creative force for evolution. In times of crisis, leadership is not about controlling chaos, but about using chaos as fuel for reinvention and growth.

Connecting the Dots in Chaos

In an increasingly interconnected world, where the speed and complexity of change challenge traditional management models, systemic leadership emerges as an essential approach. The era of Permavucalution requires leaders to abandon linear and compartmentalized thinking in favor of a holistic and integrated perspective. It is no longer enough to respond to crises in isolation; it is necessary to understand how each action reverberates in a dynamic and interdependent ecosystem.

Systems theory teaches us that the whole is more than the sum of its parts. This approach, widely explored in fields such as biology, physics, and organizational psychology, emphasizes that changes in one element can create chain reactions, often unpredictable. Peter Senge, in The Fifth Discipline, emphasizes that organizations that thrive are those that adopt a mindset of continuous learning, anchored in an understanding of the complex interactions between people, processes, and external contexts. This perspective is not just a skill but a necessity in times of uncertainty.

In the field of neuroscience, studies on the brain’s default mode network reveal how reflection, future planning, and information integration are crucial for systemic decision-making. This ability allows leaders to consider not only the immediate effects of their actions but also the long-term ramifications across the entire organizational system. For example, when facing the 2008 financial crisis, Howard Schultz, CEO of Starbucks, made decisions that went beyond cost-cutting. He prioritized employee well-being and strengthening the brand, understanding that the emotional and social impact of his choices was as significant as the financial impact.

Systemic leaders recognize that local actions can have global repercussions. During the COVID-19 pandemic, for instance, companies that adopted systemic thinking, such as Microsoft, anticipated the emerging needs for connectivity and remote work. This not only ensured operational continuity but also accelerated the development of collaborative solutions, like Microsoft Teams, which reshaped the work environment on a global scale.

The Connection Between Resilience and Systems Thinking

Resilient organizations are not built just to survive crises; they thrive because their leaders see opportunities where others see chaos. Harvard studies show that leaders who practice systems thinking are more likely to foresee future scenarios and adjust their strategies to benefit the entire organizational ecosystem. These leaders understand that the true power of resilience lies in their ability to connect the dots, fostering integrated and sustainable solutions.

On a practical level, systems thinking can be cultivated through social intelligence and collaboration. Teams that are encouraged to reflect on interconnections and share diverse perspectives develop a greater capacity to solve complex problems. This approach, described by Peter Senge as “collective intelligence,” is the key to navigating Permavucalution with agility and effectiveness.

The fact is that systemic leadership is more than just a strategic skill; it is a mindset that recognizes interdependence as the core of organizational evolution. Leaders who embrace this vision are able to transform chaos into fertile ground for innovation, connecting people, processes, and ideas in ways that create sustainable value.

To thrive in Permavucalution, leaders must adopt a mindset of continuous learning, cultivating a way of thinking that transcends boundaries and connects the invisible dots. In doing so, they will not only be prepared to face the uncertainties of the present but also to shape the future in a world of constant transformation.

An Invitation to Reflection and Action

Permavucalution is not just a theory; it is a call to awareness and transformation. It not only describes the whirlwind of changes and uncertainties around us but also challenges leaders to reconnect with their essence, reassess beliefs, question entrenched practices, and prepare for a new leadership paradigm.

We live in an era where stability has become a myth, and uncertainty, the only constant. Neuroscience and psychology show that, in the face of chaos, the human brain seeks security and predictability as primitive reflexes for self-protection. However, resisting the fluidity of the modern world is not only futile – it is a source of wear and frustration. Effective leadership in today’s landscape requires more than resilience; it demands the courage to transform uncertainty into opportunity.

Embracing uncertainty as a strategic ally is the defining hallmark of great leaders. Positive psychology teaches us that fear and anxiety, when reoriented, can transform into curiosity and innovation. This shift in perspective unlocks dormant potentials, allowing leaders to see opportunities where there was once only risk. Here lies the true strength of leadership: not in the denial of challenges, but in the ability to integrate them into a narrative of growth and transformation.

The Path to Leadership in the Age of Permavucalution

Now that we have explored the fundamental concepts of leadership in times of Permavucalution, it is time to transform theory into practice. Leading in this new paradigm goes beyond understanding the dynamics at play – it is about acting with intention, clarity, and purpose. Where to begin? What deserves your immediate attention?

1. Start with the Internal Revolution

Before transforming your organization, transform yourself. The growth mindset, as highlighted by Carol Dweck in Mindset: The New Psychology of Success, is essential. It teaches that skills can be developed continuously, and that challenges are opportunities to learn. To begin this internal revolution:

• Question your assumptions: What limiting beliefs still restrict your decisions as a leader? Which outdated paradigms need to be revisited?
• Practice self-awareness: Invest in tools such as mindfulness, continuous feedback, and even therapy if necessary. These practices help identify and manage emotions, blocks, and reactions in the face of uncertainty.

2. Embrace Uncertainty as an Ally

Viewing uncertainty as an enemy is a strategic mistake. In the context of Permavucalution, it is a transformative force – an opportunity for adaptation and innovation. To make it an ally:

• Cultivate resilience: Explore the neuroscience of resilience, understanding how daily self-care practices, such as exercise and meditation, strengthen your emotional and mental balance.
• Manage fear and anxiety: Use cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) approaches to restructure paralyzing thoughts and transform uncertainty into a catalyst for creativity.

3. Apply Systems Thinking

The complexity of Permavucalution demands a holistic view. Linear thinking is not enough; it is essential to understand how decisions affect multiple levels of the system. To do this:

• Understand the interconnections: Ask how each decision will impact different areas of the organization and the global ecosystem.
• Think long-term: Avoid short-term decisions that may compromise the future. Adopt a sustainable perspective, considering broad impacts.

4. Turn Crises into Opportunities

Crises are inevitable. Whether it’s an operational failure or a market challenge, they test a leader’s ability to turn adversity into growth. To make the most of these moments:

• Face adversity with humility and curiosity: Instead of reacting automatically, ask: What can we learn from this situation?
• Create spaces for creativity: Encourage your team to think outside the box, providing an environment where mistakes are seen as natural steps in the innovation process.

5. Engage Your Team in the Transformation

Significant transformations are not solitary. They involve a collective effort to build a culture of learning, innovation, and collaboration. To do this:

• Share the vision: Be transparent about the challenges and the necessary steps. A shared purpose creates engagement and alignment.
• Empower the team: Invest in the continuous development of people at all levels. This strengthens the adaptability and resilience of the organization.

What Cannot Be Neglected

In times of Permavucalution, certain pillars are non-negotiable:

• Self-awareness: Leaders who are aware of their emotions and patterns have a greater ability to guide teams with authenticity and clarity.
• Continuous adaptation: Never stop learning. Innovation is fueled by curiosity and the willingness to abandon what no longer works.
• Systems thinking: Isolated decisions have unpredictable repercussions. Maintain a broad and interconnected perspective.
• Spaces for innovation: Crisis is fertile ground for creative ideas. Foster an environment where the new is encouraged.
• Emotional management: The mental health of the leader and the team is essential to navigate uncertainties with balance and effectiveness.

If you’ve made it this far, you’ve already realized that leadership in the era of Permavucalution demands deliberate action, continuous learning, and the courage to embrace uncertainty as a strategic partner. Now more than ever, your ability to lead will be measured not only by what you do but by what you inspire others to do. Transformation begins now – and it starts with you.

Finally,

These questions don’t have easy or comfortable answers. They touch the core of transformation, and it is precisely in these questions that the starting point for genuine and transformative leadership resides. Leadership in the era of Permavucalution is not defined by knowing all the answers, but by having the courage to ask the right questions.

Be aware that Permavucalution is not a passing phase, nor a temporary trend – it is our new reality. Leaders who wish to thrive in this dynamic and fluid environment must adopt a proactive approach. They must embrace uncertainty not as a threat, but as an opportunity. And, above all, cultivate a mindset of continuous growth.

The true revolution begins within us. By transforming themselves, leaders have the power to transform their organizations, communities, and ultimately, the world. The future of leadership will be determined by those who are willing to act not only based on certainties but to navigate the chaos with competence – turning chaos into creativity, uncertainty into innovation, and complexity into connection.

Remember that neuroplasticity – the brain’s ability to adapt and reorganize – offers a powerful lesson: just as the human brain can transform, we, as leaders, can too. This transformation is not an isolated event but a continuous process of learning and reinvention. Just as our neurons create new connections in the face of challenges, leaders have the power to create new ways of thinking, acting, and inspiring.

Therefore, the most important question is: Are you ready to lead this revolution? Are you prepared to create a future in which uncertainty is not an obstacle, but an opportunity for transformation?

The future of leadership is not reserved for those who have all the answers – but for those who have the courage to learn, grow, and evolve with the world around them. And you, leader of tomorrow, are you ready for this journey?

True leadership in the era of Permavucalution demands more than theories or intentions. It requires a daily commitment to transformation, starting from within and reverberating throughout the surrounding system. The challenge is great, but the reward is immense: building more resilient, innovative, and time-connected organizations.

The invitation is set: how will you choose to lead in this ever-evolving scenario? How are you preparing to lead in times of Permavucalution?

What old beliefs or paradigms have you already challenged on your path to becoming a more adaptable and transformative leader?

Leave your comment and share your thoughts – the leadership of the future starts with reflections like these. Let’s build together a scenario where uncertainty is an opportunity, not a barrier.

#Permavucalution #TransformativeLeadership #InnovationInCompanies #GrowthMindset #LeadershipInTimesOfCrisis #DigitalTransformation #ChangeManagement #OrganizationalResilience #InspirationalLeadership #PositivePsychology #SystemsThinking #NeuroscienceOfLeadership #FutureOfWork